The experiences of men on active surveillance for prostate cancer and their significant others: A qualitative synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Active surveillance (AS) for prostate cancer (PCa) is a monitoring pathway for men with low-grade, slow growing PCa and aims to delay or avoid active treatment by treating only in the case of disease progression. Experiences of this pathway vary but living with an untreated cancer can have a negative psychological impact on both the patient and their significant other (SO). Literature suggests partners are the primary source of support for men on AS, and therefore it is important to consider SO experiences alongside those of the patient. To the best of our knowledge this is the first UK-based qualitative review looking specifically at experiences of AS for both men with PCa and their SOs. METHODS: MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE, PsychINFO, CINAHL and Cochrane Library were searched for literature reporting qualitative experiences of AS for PCa for either men on AS or SOs (or both). 2769 records were identified and screened, with 28 meeting the eligibility criteria. Qualitative data were synthesised and included men on AS (n = 428), and SOs (n = 51). RESULTS: Experiences of the AS pathway vary but reports of uncertainty and anxiety were present in the accounts of both men on AS and SOs. SOs are intertwined throughout every part of the PCa journey, and couples presented as a unit that were on AS together. Both patients and SOs expressed a need for more support, and highly valued peer support. Despite this finding, men expressed a dislike towards 'support groups'. CONCLUSIONS: Increased recognition in clinical practice of SO involvement in AS is needed. Further research is required to explore the specific types of support that would be most acceptable to this population to address the unmet support needs uncovered in this review.

Incidence of Clostridioides difficile Infections in Republic of Korea: A Prospective Study With Active Surveillance vs. National Data From Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service.

BACKGROUND: Since the emergence of hypervirulent strains of Clostridioides difficile, the incidence of C. difficile infections (CDI) has increased significantly. METHODS: To assess the incidence of CDI in Korea, we conducted a prospective multicentre observational study from October 2020 to October 2021. Additionally, we calculated the incidence of CDI from mass data obtained from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA) from 2008 to 2020. RESULTS: In the prospective study with active surveillance, 30,212 patients had diarrhoea and 907 patients were diagnosed with CDI over 1,288,571 patient-days and 193,264 admissions in 18 participating hospitals during 3 months of study period; the CDI per 10,000 patient-days was 7.04 and the CDI per 1,000 admission was 4.69. The incidence of CDI was higher in general hospitals than in tertiary hospitals: 6.38 per 10,000 patient-days (range: 3.25-12.05) and 4.18 per 1,000 admissions (range: 1.92-8.59) in 11 tertiary hospitals, vs. 9.45 per 10,000 patient-days (range: 5.68-13.90) and 6.73 per 1,000 admissions (range: 3.18-15.85) in seven general hospitals. With regard to HIRA data, the incidence of CDI in all hospitals has been increasing over the 13-year-period: from 0.3 to 1.8 per 10,000 patient-days, 0.3 to 1.6 per 1,000 admissions, and 6.9 to 56.9 per 100,000 population, respectively. CONCLUSION: The incidence of CDI in Korea has been gradually increasing, and its recent value is as high as that in the United State and Europe. CDI is underestimated, particularly in general hospitals in Korea.

Safety profile of recombinant adjuvanted anti-herpes zoster vaccine (RZV) in high-risk groups: Data from active surveillance program. Puglia (Italy), 2021-23.

BACKGROUND: Since 2021 a recombinant adjuvanted anti-Herpes Zoster vaccine(Recombinant Zoster Vaccine, RZV) is offered in Italy to high-risk patients. Few real-life data about RZV safety are available in target populations. OBJECTIVES: This study investigates Adverse Events Following Immunization(AEFIs), baseline disease flare-ups, and Herpes Zoster (HZ) episodes occurring after RZV administration in a heterogeneous population of fragile patients to design its safety profile. METHODS: This is a retrospective population-based study. RZV-vaccinated patients at Bari Policlinico General Hospital vaccination clinic from October 1st, 2021, to March 31st, 2023, were enrolled. Subjects were screened for reason of RZV eligibility and baseline chronic pathologies. AEFIs occurred in the first 7-days post-vaccination period were collected, and baseline disease flare-ups and post-vaccination HZ episodes were assessed via a 3-month follow-up. RESULTS: Five-hundred-thirty-eight patients were included and total of 1,031 doses were administered. Most patients were vaccinated due to ongoing immunosuppressive therapy(54.65 %); onco-hematological and cardiovascular conditions were the most common chronic baseline pathologies. Out of 1,031 follow-ups, 441 AEFI cases were reported(42.7/100). The most common symptoms were injection site pain/itching(35.60/100), asthenia/malaise(11.44/100), and fever (10.09/100). Four serious AEFIs occurred(0.38/100). Older age, male sex, and history of cardiovascular diseases(OR:0.71; 95CI:0.52-0.98; p-value <0.05) were found to decrease AEFIs risk, while endocrine-metabolic illnesses(OR:1.61; 95CI:1.15-2.26; p-value <0.05) increased it. Twelve patients(2.23 %) reported a flare-up/worsening of their baseline chronic condition within the first three months after vaccination(mean interval 31.75 days, range 0-68 days). Patients with rheumatological illnesses had a higher risk of relapse(OR:16.56; 95CI:3.58-76.56; p-value <0.001), while male sex behaved as a protective factor. Twelve patients who completed the vaccination cycle(2.43%) had at least one HZ episode by the long-term follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrates RZV safety in a significant number of high-risk patients. Hence, RZV should be actively offered as part of tailored vaccination programs to decrease the burden of HZ in fragile populations.

Racial and Ethnic Variation in Receipt and Intensity of Active Surveillance for Older Patients With Localized Prostate Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The use of active surveillance (AS) for prostate cancer is increasing, and racial disparities have been identified in its implementation. We investigated differences by race and ethnicity in the utilization and intensity of AS by race and ethnicity among older men with low- and favorable intermediate-risk prostate cancer, with particular focus on the integration of multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) into AS protocols. METHODS: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results and Medicare fee-for-service linked database, we identified a cohort of men diagnosed between 2010 and 2017 with low- or favorable intermediate-risk prostate cancer. The odds of receiving AS were compared by patient race and ethnicity using multivariable logistic regression models, while the rates of usage of PSA tests, biopsy, and mpMRI within 2 years of diagnosis among men on AS were assessed using multivariable Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Our cohort included 33,542 men. The proportion of men with low-risk disease who underwent AS increased from 29.5% in 2010 to 51.7% in 2017, while the proportion among men with favorable intermediate disease grew from 11.4% to 17.2%. Hispanic (odds ratio [OR] = 0.68, 95% CI 0.58-0.79) and non-Hispanic Black men (OR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.68-0.89) were less likely to receive AS than non-Hispanic White men for low-risk disease, while non-Hispanic Black men were more likely to receive AS for favorable intermediate disease (OR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.04-1.39). Non-Hispanic Black men receiving AS underwent prostate MRI at a lower rate compared to non-Hispanic White men, regardless of whether they had low-risk (incidence rate ratio = 0.77, 95% CI 0.61-0.97) or favorable intermediate-risk (incidence rate ratio = 0.61, 95% CI 0.44-0.83) disease, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The overall adoption of AS for low-risk prostate cancer increased among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. However, a significant disparity exists for non-Hispanic Black men, as they exhibit lower rates of AS utilization. Moreover, non-Hispanic Black men are less likely to have access to novel technologies, such as mpMRI, as part of their AS protocols.

Active surveillance of antimicrobial resistance in companion animals: A pilot study in a Spanish Veterinary Teaching Hospital.

The role of small animal veterinary hospitals in the onset and dissemination of antimicrobial-resistant organisms (AMROs) is still not clear, and the implementation of an internal surveillance systems is a cost-effective tool to better understand their impact. The aim of this study was to describe a pilot program of active surveillance in a Spanish Veterinary Teaching Hospital, developed to estimate the detection frequency of AMROs in the commensal flora of patients and in the environment. Surveillance was focused on Methicillin-resistant Staphylococci (MRS), third generation cephalosporins resistant gram-negative bacteria (3GCR-GNB), and carbapenems-resistant gram-negative bacteria (CR-GNB). Oral and perirectal swabs were collected in the same dogs and cats hospitalized > 48 h, at their admission and before their discharge. Out of 50 patients sampled, 24% (12/50) were carriers at admission of at least one of the three investigated AMROs. Twenty-eight percent of patients (14/50) acquired at least one AMRO during the hospital stay. MRS detection frequency at admission was 12% (6/50), while acquisition was 6% (3/50). 3GCR-GNB detection frequency was 14% at admission (7/50) and acquisition 22% (11/50), while CR-GNB detection frequency was 2% at admission (1/50) and acquisition 2% (1/50). Environmental surveillance (98 samples) showed a total detection frequency of 22.4% for MRS (22/98), 2% for 3GCR-GNB and CR-GNB (2/98). Clinical staff' shoe soles showed high detection frequency for MRS (50%). 3GCR Escherichia coli was the most isolated species in patients (n = 17). The results show how active surveillance can be used as a tool to assess the impact of AMROs in veterinary hospitals to subsequently build up tailored control plans based on specific issues.

Transcriptome-Based Prognostic and Predictive Biomarker Analysis of ENACT: A Randomized Controlled Trial of Enzalutamide in Men Undergoing Active Surveillance.

PURPOSE: Few studies have explored the potential for pharmacological interventions to delay disease progression in patients undergoing active surveillance (AS). This preplanned transcriptomic analysis of patient samples from the ENACT trial aims to identify biomarkers in patients on AS who are at increased risk for disease progression or who may derive the greatest benefit from enzalutamide treatment. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the phase II ENACT (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02799745) trial, patients on AS were randomly assigned 1:1 to 160 mg orally once daily enzalutamide monotherapy or continued AS for 1 year. Transcriptional analyses were conducted on biopsies collected at trial screening, year 1, and year 2. Three gene expression signatures were evaluated in samples collected at screening and in available samples from patients on AS at any time during surveillance (expanded cohort): Decipher genomic classifier, androgen receptor activity (AR-A) score, and Prediction Analysis of Microarray 50 (PAM50) cell subtype signature. RESULTS: The Decipher genomic classifier score was prognostic; higher scores were associated with disease progression in the expanded cohort and AS arm of the expanded cohort. Patients with higher Decipher scores had greater positive treatment effect from enzalutamide as measured by time to secondary rise in prostate-specific antigen >25% above baseline. In patients treated with enzalutamide, higher AR-A scores and PAM50 luminal subtypes were associated with a greater likelihood of negative biopsy incidence at year 2. CONCLUSION: This analysis suggests that the Decipher genomic classifier may be prognostic for disease progression in AS patients with low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Higher Decipher and AR-A scores, as well as PAM50 luminal subtypes, may also serve as biomarkers for treatment response.

Application of deep learning on mammographies to discriminate between low and high-risk DCIS for patient participation in active surveillance trials.

BACKGROUND: Ductal Carcinoma In Situ (DCIS) can progress to invasive breast cancer, but most DCIS lesions never will. Therefore, four clinical trials (COMET, LORIS, LORETTA, AND LORD) test whether active surveillance for women with low-risk Ductal carcinoma In Situ is safe (E. S. Hwang et al., BMJ Open, 9: e026797, 2019, A. Francis et al., Eur J Cancer. 51: 2296-2303, 2015, Chizuko Kanbayashi et al. The international collaboration of active surveillance trials for low-risk DCIS (LORIS, LORD, COMET, LORETTA),  L. E. Elshof et al., Eur J Cancer, 51, 1497-510, 2015). Low-risk is defined as grade I or II DCIS. Because DCIS grade is a major eligibility criteria in these trials, it would be very helpful to assess DCIS grade on mammography, informed by grade assessed on DCIS histopathology in pre-surgery biopsies, since surgery will not be performed on a significant number of patients participating in these trials. OBJECTIVE: To assess the performance and clinical utility of a convolutional neural network (CNN) in discriminating high-risk (grade III) DCIS and/or Invasive Breast Cancer (IBC) from low-risk (grade I/II) DCIS based on mammographic features. We explored whether the CNN could be used as a decision support tool, from excluding high-risk patients for active surveillance. METHODS: In this single centre retrospective study, 464 patients diagnosed with DCIS based on pre-surgery biopsy between 2000 and 2014 were included. The collection of mammography images was partitioned on a patient-level into two subsets, one for training containing 80% of cases (371 cases, 681 images) and 20% (93 cases, 173 images) for testing. A deep learning model based on the U-Net CNN was trained and validated on 681 two-dimensional mammograms. Classification performance was assessed with the Area Under the Curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic and predictive values on the test set for predicting high risk DCIS-and high-risk DCIS and/ or IBC from low-risk DCIS. RESULTS: When classifying DCIS as high-risk, the deep learning network achieved a Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of 0.40, Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of 0.91 and an AUC of 0.72 on the test dataset. For distinguishing high-risk and/or upstaged DCIS (occult invasive breast cancer) from low-risk DCIS a PPV of 0.80, a NPV of 0.84 and an AUC of 0.76 were achieved. CONCLUSION: For both scenarios (DCIS grade I/II vs. III, DCIS grade I/II vs. III and/or IBC) AUCs were high, 0.72 and 0.76, respectively, concluding that our convolutional neural network can discriminate low-grade from high-grade DCIS.

Tumor growth manifested in two-fifths of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma patients during active surveillance: data from a tertiary center in China.

Purpose: To assess tumor growth using tumor doubling rate (TDR) during active surveillance (AS) in China. Methods: Between January 2016 and June 2020, a total of 219 patients with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) (aged 23-75 years) were consecutively enrolled in the AS program. Results: Four sections of TDR, >0.5, 0.1~0.5, -0.1~0.1 and <-0.1, corresponded with four categories of tumor volume kinetics: rapid growth, slow growth, stable, and decreased size. We found that 10.5% of PTMCs exhibited rapid growth, 33.33% exhibited slow growth, 26.48% were stable, and 29.68% decreased in size. Tumor growth was associated with two factors: age and volume of PTMC at diagnosis. 85.72% of elderly patients (≥ 61 years old) had tumors that remained stable or even shrank and rapidly growing tumors were not found in them. When the volume was small (≤14.13 mm3), the proportion of rapid growth was high (41.67%), whereas when the volume was large (> 179.5 mm3), the proportion of non-growth was 68.75%. Conclusion: TDR may be a better metric for evaluating tumor growth in observational PTMCs. A certain proportion of PTMCs grow during the period of AS and tumor growth was associated with age and volume of PTMC at initial diagnosis. Therefore, how to block tumor growth during the AS period, especially for young patients and patients with early-stage PTMC (size ≤ 5 mm), will be a new challenge.

Preterm Birth Following Active Surveillance vs Loop Excision for Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia Grade 2.

Importance: Active surveillance for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN2) is being implemented in many high-income countries due to the association of excisional treatment with preterm birth. However, it is unknown whether active surveillance results in lower risk of preterm birth given that cervical dysplasia itself is associated with higher risk of preterm birth. Objective: To compare the preterm birth risk between women with CIN2 undergoing active surveillance or immediate loop electrosurgical excision procedure (LEEP). Design, Setting, and Participants: This historical population-based cohort study included women with a first-time diagnosis of CIN2 and a subsequent singleton birth from 1998 to 2018 in Denmark. Women with prior CIN grade 3 or greater or LEEP were excluded. Data were collected from 4 Danish health care registries. Analyses were conducted from October 2022 to June 2023. Exposure: Women were categorized into active surveillance (cervical biopsy and/or cytology) or immediate LEEP based on their first cervical sample after CIN2 diagnosis. The active surveillance group was further subdivided based on whether a delayed LEEP was performed within 28 months from CIN2 diagnosis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Risk of preterm birth (<37 + 0 weeks) was assessed and relative risks (RRs) were calculated using modified Poisson regression. Analyses used inverse probability treatment weighting of the propensity scores to adjust for age, parity, calendar year, index cytology, and smoking. Results: A total of 10 537 women with CIN2 and a singleton birth were identified; 4430 (42%) underwent active surveillance and 6107 (58%) were treated with immediate LEEP. For both groups, most were aged 23 to 29 years at CIN2 diagnosis (3125 [70%] and 3907 [64%], respectively). Overall, 869 births (8.2%) were preterm. The risk of preterm birth was comparable between active surveillance and immediate LEEP (RR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.90-1.18). However, for women undergoing delayed LEEP after active surveillance (1539 of the active surveillance group [35%]), the risk of preterm birth was higher than for women treated with immediate LEEP (RR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.08-1.55). Conclusions and relevance: In this cohort study of women with CIN2, the risk of preterm birth was comparable between active surveillance and immediate LEEP. However, delayed LEEP was associated with 30% higher risk of preterm birth than immediate LEEP. Thus, risk stratification at CIN2 diagnosis is important to identify women with increased risk of delayed LEEP.

Exploring the relation of active surveillance schedules and prostate cancer mortality.

BACKGROUND: Active surveillance (AS), where treatment is deferred until cancer progression is detected by a biopsy, is acknowledged as a way to reduce overtreatment in prostate cancer. However, a consensus on the frequency of taking biopsies while in AS is lacking. In former studies to optimize biopsy schedules, the delay in progression detection was taken as an evaluation indicator and believed to be associated with the long-term outcome, prostate cancer mortality. Nevertheless, this relation was never investigated in empirical data. Here, we use simulated data from a microsimulation model to fill this knowledge gap. METHODS: In this study, the established MIcrosimulation SCreening Analysis model was extended with functionality to simulate the AS procedures. The biopsy sensitivity in the model was calibrated on the Canary Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance Study (PASS) data, and four (tri-yearly, bi-yearly, PASS, and yearly) AS programs were simulated. The relation between detection delay and prostate cancer mortality was investigated by Cox models. RESULTS: The biopsy sensitivity of progression detection was found to be 50%. The Cox models show a positive relation between a longer detection delay and a higher risk of prostate cancer death. A 2-year delay resulted in a prostate cancer death risk of 2.46%-2.69% 5 years after progression detection and a 10-year risk of 5.75%-5.91%. A 4-year delay led to an approximately 8% greater 5-year risk and an approximately 25% greater 10-year risk. CONCLUSION: The detection delay is confirmed as a surrogate for prostate cancer mortality. A cut-off for a "safe" detection delay could not be identified.

High-resolution Diffusion-weighted Imaging to Detect Changes in Tumor Size and ADC, and Predict Adverse Biopsy Histology during Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance.

PURPOSE: Majority of men with low-risk prostate cancer can be managed with active surveillance (AS). This study evaluates a high-resolution diffusion-weighted imaging (HR-DWI) technique to predict adverse biopsy histology (AH), defined as Gleason score ≥7 on any biopsy or ≥3 increase in number of positive biopsy cores on systematic biopsies. We test the hypothesis that high-grade disease and progressing disease undergo subtle changes during even short intervals that can be detected by HR-DWI. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: In a prospective clinical trial, serial multiparametric MRIs, incorporating HR-DWI and standard DWI (S-DWI) were performed approximately 12 months apart prior to prostate biopsy (n = 59). HR-DWI, which uses reduced field-of-view and motion compensation techniques, was compared with S-DWI. RESULTS: HR-DWI had a 3-fold improvement in spacial resolution compared with S-DWI as confirmed using imaging phantoms. For detecting AH, multiparametric MRI using HR-DWI had a sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 83.9%, and MRI using S-DWI had a sensitivity of 71.4% and specificity of 54.8%. The AUC for HR-DWI was significantly higher (0.794 vs. 0.631, P = 0.014). Secondary analyses of univariable predictors of AH showed tumor size increase [OR 16.8; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.06-69.48; P < 0.001] and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) decrease (OR 5.06; 95% CI: 1.39-18.38; P = 0.014) on HR-DWI were significant predictors of AH. CONCLUSION: HR-DWI outperforms S-DWI in predicting AH. Patient with AH have tumors that change in size and ADC that could be detected using HR-DWI. Future studies with longer follow-up should assess HR-DWI for predicting disease progression during AS. SIGNIFICANCE: We report on a prospective clinical trial using a MRI that has three times the resolution of standard MRI. During AS for prostate cancer, two high-resolution MRIs performed approximately a year apart can detect tumor changes that predict the presence of aggressive cancers that should be considered for curative therapy such as prostatectomy or radiation.

Non-operative management in low-lying rectal cancers undergoing chemoradiation.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the outcomes of post-neoadjuvant chemoradiation (NACTRT) wait-and-watch Strategy (WWS) in distal rectal cancers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All consecutive patients from December 2012 to 2019 diagnosed with distal rectal tumors (T2-T4 N0-N+) having a complete or near-complete response (cCR or nCR, respectively) post-NACTRT and wishing for the non-surgical treatment option of WWS were included in this study. Patients were observed with 3 monthly magnetic resonance imaging (MRIs), sigmoidoscopies, and digital rectal examination for 2 years and 6 monthly thereafter. Organ preservation rate (OPR), local regrowth rate (LRR), non-regrowth recurrence-free survival (NR-RFS) and overall survival (OAS) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and factors associated with LRR were identified on univariate and multivariate analysis using the log-rank test (P < 0.05 significant). RESULTS: Sixty-one consecutive patients post-NACTRT achieving cCR[44 (72%)] and nCR[17 (28%)], respectively, were identified. All patients received pelvic radiotherapy at a dose of 45-50Gy conventional fractionation and concurrent capecitabine. An additional boost dose with either an external beam or brachytherapy was given to 39 patients. At a median follow-up of 39 months, 11 (18%) patients had local regrowth, of which seven were salvaged with surgery and the rest are alive with the disease, as they refused surgery. The overall OPR, NR-RFS, and OS were 83%, 95%, and 98%, respectively. Seven (11%) patients developed distant metastasis, of which six underwent metastatectomy and are alive and well. LRR was higher in patients with nCR versus cCR (P = 0.05). CONCLUSION: The WWS is a safe non-operative alternative management for selected patients attaining cCR/nCR after NACTRT with excellent outcomes.

Effects of hysteroscopic septum incision versus expectant management on IVF outcomes in women with complete septate uterus: a retrospective study.

OBJECTIVE: This retrospective study aimed to assess the impact of hysteroscopic septum incision on in vitro fertilization (IVF) outcomes among infertile women diagnosed with a complete septate uterus and no history of recurrent pregnancy loss. METHODS: The study was conducted at a tertiary reproductive center affiliated with a university hospital and involved 78 women with a complete septate uterus. Among them, 34 women underwent hysteroscopic septum incision, while 44 women opted for expectant management. The primary outcome measure was the live birth rate, while secondary outcomes included clinical pregnancy rate, preterm birth rate, miscarriage rate, and ongoing pregnancy rate. RESULTS: Women who underwent hysteroscopic septum incision demonstrated a comparable likelihood of achieving a live birth compared to those managed expectantly (25% vs. 25%, Relative Risk (RR): 1.000, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.822 to 1.216). No preterm births occurred in either group. The clinical pregnancy rate, ongoing pregnancy rate, and miscarriage rate showed no significant differences between the surgical group and the expectant management group. Subgroup analyses based on the type of embryo transferred also revealed no significant differences in outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Hysteroscopic septum incision does not appear to yield improved IVF outcomes compared to expectant management in infertile women with a complete septate uterus and no history of recurrent pregnancy loss.

Triggers for transition from active surveillance to radical treatment of prostate cancer 2008-2020 - a case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between objective signs of progression (triggers) and transition from active surveillance (AS) to radical treatment for prostate cancer (PC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: This case-control study included men with low- or favourable intermediate-risk PC in the region of Halland, with data from The National Prostate Cancer Register (NPCR), Sweden, starting AS between 2008 and 2020. Cases were men who transitioned to radical treatment. For each case, 10 controls who remained in AS were selected without further matching. Triggers for transition to treatment were histopathological progression, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) progression and increases in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels. We compared the probabilities for triggers between cases and controls, in 2008-2014 and 2015-2020, using logistic regression. RESULTS: Amongst 846 men, we identified 98 cases in 2008-2014 and 172 cases in 2015-2020. Histopathological progression was associated with transition, most strongly in the later period (2008-2014: odds ratios [OR] 6.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.69-12.80; and 2015-2020: OR 75.29, 95% CI 39.60-143.17). MRI progression was associated with transition in 2015-2020 (OR 6.38, 95% CI 2.70-15.06), whereas an increase in PSA was weakly associated with transition in the early period. The absence of triggers was associated with no transition (2008-2014: OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.15-0.40, and 2015-2020: OR 0.09, 95% CI 0.06-0.14). The probability of no trigger was 27% in cases 2015-2020. CONCLUSION: The increase in association between histopathological trigger and transition to treatment indicates increased quality of AS. Still, amongst men treated from 2015 to 2020, 27% transitioned without any trigger.

A Pilot Study on Patient-specific Computational Forecasting of Prostate Cancer Growth during Active Surveillance Using an Imaging-informed Biomechanistic Model.

Active surveillance (AS) is a suitable management option for newly diagnosed prostate cancer, which usually presents low to intermediate clinical risk. Patients enrolled in AS have their tumor monitored via longitudinal multiparametric MRI (mpMRI), PSA tests, and biopsies. Hence, treatment is prescribed when these tests identify progression to higher-risk prostate cancer. However, current AS protocols rely on detecting tumor progression through direct observation according to population-based monitoring strategies. This approach limits the design of patient-specific AS plans and may delay the detection of tumor progression. Here, we present a pilot study to address these issues by leveraging personalized computational predictions of prostate cancer growth. Our forecasts are obtained with a spatiotemporal biomechanistic model informed by patient-specific longitudinal mpMRI data (T2-weighted MRI and apparent diffusion coefficient maps from diffusion-weighted MRI). Our results show that our technology can represent and forecast the global tumor burden for individual patients, achieving concordance correlation coefficients from 0.93 to 0.99 across our cohort (n = 7). In addition, we identify a model-based biomarker of higher-risk prostate cancer: the mean proliferation activity of the tumor (P = 0.041). Using logistic regression, we construct a prostate cancer risk classifier based on this biomarker that achieves an area under the ROC curve of 0.83. We further show that coupling our tumor forecasts with this prostate cancer risk classifier enables the early identification of prostate cancer progression to higher-risk disease by more than 1 year. Thus, we posit that our predictive technology constitutes a promising clinical decision-making tool to design personalized AS plans for patients with prostate cancer. SIGNIFICANCE: Personalization of a biomechanistic model of prostate cancer with mpMRI data enables the prediction of tumor progression, thereby showing promise to guide clinical decision-making during AS for each individual patient.